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Henci GoerFind out what other moms-to-be are asking.  Join in the discussion with Henci Goer, an expert in obstetric research. If you would like to contact Henci outside of the Ask Henci forum, send an email to Goersitemail@aol.com.

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Reply To Topic Topic: advice on scheduled cesarean births
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Posted By on 03 Mar 2006 03:36 PM
Welcome! We're glad to have you! As it happens, I just responded on this issue by listing a couple of reviews addressing whether planned cesarean surgery for suspected macrosomia (usually defined as weighing more than 4000 g or 8 lbs 13 oz or as greater than the 90th percentile for gestational age) is a good idea. While you'll want to get those reviews, I'll save you the suspense: the answer is "no." The title of the thread is "Caesarean prescribed for potential shoulder dystocia." Let me add to that list the question of how well can we predict macrosomia. Here is the story on that:

Studies consistently report that ultrasound imaging and clinical estimates predict macrosomia poorly. Predictions are wrong 1/3 to 1/2 the time (Chervenak 1989; Combs 1993; Delpapa 1991; Johnstone 1996; Levine 1992; Pollack 1992). If a clinician thinks the baby is going to be macrosomic, he or she might as well flip a coin as order a sonogram.

But there's still more: two studies looked at the effect of ultrasound diagosis of macrosomia on outcomes (Levine 1992; Weeks 1995). Both found that when ultrasound led the ob to believe that women were carrying macrosomic babies, half had c/secs vs. less than 1/3 of women not thought to have macrosomic babies but who actually did. In other words, the ob's belief that a woman won't be able to birth the baby because it is too big substantially increases her risk of cesarean. With a tip of the hat to Stephen Colbert of Comedy Central's Colbert Report, this is a prime example of "truthiness" in obstetrics at work. My advice to your students would be to think twice and maybe three or four times about staying with a care provider who doubts their ability to give birth vaginally because of estimated fetal weight. Even if they turn down the cesarean, they're by no means out of the woods.

It is also worth noting that the cesarean rate for birth weights greater than 4000 g in the U.K. in 1958 was . . . drum roll . . . 3% (Francome 1993) or an order of magnitude less than it was in these 1990s studies even in the low cesarean rate group.

-- Henci

By: Henci Goer
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